Globally, monsoons have displayed diminishing intensity since 1950, as assessed in a paper by Chase et al. Heavy rain, a rare phenomenon in Kashmir and Ladakh, is now a reality.†Also, as the region is a seismic zone, landslides triggered by earthquakes are an imminent threat (S. Conditions across the Himalayas, including in J&K, are changing and witnessing extreme weather events. Dr Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, head of department of earth sciences, University of Kashmir comments that “Cloudbursts are becoming highly localised. The state of Jammu and Kashmir in India has witnessed several cloudburst events since the cloudburst in Leh in 2010. The UN expects that about 40 million people in India in 2050 might be affected by rising sea levels. The UN Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-6): Regional Assessments report (2016) places India as among the countries that might be most affected by the effects of climate change. For this there is need to have special observation campaignâ€, Dr Tyagi opines.  “Cloudburst studies require high quality meso-scale meteorological/thermodynamical data which is not available at present to scientists. As there are no radars and denser Automatic Weather Stations in Himalayas, cloudburst events are generally reported based on loss of life and damage in a given small area and not based on Meteorological data” he adds. These generally occur during active  monsoon conditions and at best can be detected by Doppler Weather Radars. Being a highly localized phenomenon,  it is difficult to forecast exact location and time of cloudburst occurrence. “In Plains it occurs with intense meso-scale circulation and strong upper level divergence. Thus large droplets start falling in the form of very heavy rainfall within a short period of time resulting in cloudburst like situation. This takes large water droplets and ice crystals upwards and the vertical motion is not able to keep the huge quantity of piled up hydro meteors afloat. Mountainous terrain aids in the upward movement of warm air currents, and thus increases the likelihood of cloudbursts over these regions.Īccording to Dr Ajit Tyagi, former Director General of IMD, the “Only difference between heavy rainfall and cloudburst is intensity of vertical motion in a small area. When this heavy accumulation of raindrops finally precipitate due to significant temperature differences, they suddenly fall in a bulk, and in such a case there is a chance of a cloudburst occurring. This causes large accumulations of heavy raindrops in the cloud that are bolstered by the updraft until they coalesce together and become too heavy for the cloud to hold. The leeward front presented by clusters of mountains make mountainous regions more susceptible to cloudbursts than plain areas.Ĭloudbursts are usually made up of saturated clouds accompanied by the upward movement of warm currents of air. The flash floods triggered by cloudbursts are more difficult to mitigate due to their suddenness and can be especially dangerous in compact and enclosed spaces on slopes such as those of mountainous cities and towns. If the rainfall recorded over an area measuring approximately 20 to 30 sq km falls at a rate of 10 cm per hour (or above), the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) defines the rainfall event as a cloudburst (IMD, 2017).Ĭloudbursts are known to frequently trigger flash floods and landslides, making cloudbursts especially dangerous in mountainous regions. The definition of a cloudburst is not ambiguous, and there is a proper method whereby very heavy rainfall that takes place over a short period of time and over a limited area is classified as a cloudburst. Uttarakhand, lashed by a cloudburst-induced landslide disaster in 2013, is on alert and tourists have been advised not to travel to Uttarakhand after spells of very heavy rainfall were recorded during the 2017 Monsoon. Earlier in the month on July 1, a cloudburst over Morbi district in Gujarat had led to floods that had displaced over 1,500 people (Indian Express, 2017). The Batote-Kishtwar highway was also struck by a flash flood due to the cloudburst where there was significant property damage. The deaths mostly occurred as most people were asleep during the cloudburst. Flash floods hit Thathri town at 2 in the morning. Many of the casualties occurred due to running debris and silt that flowed through in the Chenab Valley as a result of the night-time cloudburst between July 19 to the 20. On July 19, 2017, a cloudburst in the Chenab Valley region of Doda district in Jammu and Kashmir led to 8 deaths and 11 people injured (The Hindu, 2017).
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